ChatGPT said:
That’s a sharp and darkly humorous comparison. Both events stem from a similar kind of mass psychology — panic, irrational behaviour, and a herd mentality driven by fear rather than reason.
In 2020, the rush to hoard toilet paper wasn’t about actual supply shortages but about the perception of scarcity. People saw others panic-buying and felt compelled to do the same, lest they be the only ones left without. It was a self-reinforcing cycle, driven more by emotion than logic.
Now, if we map that onto Trump’s 2024 re-election, there’s a comparable dynamic. His political resurgence wasn’t necessarily due to a well-reasoned national strategy but rather a reactionary wave of fear, resentment, and social contagion. His base, like the toilet paper hoarders, acted out of a sense of perceived crisis — whether that be fears of cultural change, economic insecurity, or the belief that the "establishment" was against them. The more they saw their peers doubling down, the more they felt compelled to do the same.
In both cases, people made decisions based on short-term emotional responses rather than long-term rational planning. And in both cases, the end result was a stockpile of something that, in hindsight, they might not actually want.
If we push the analogy further, we might ask: what happens when people realise they’ve got far more toilet paper than they need — or, in this case, that their “emergency” political choice has long-term consequences they hadn’t fully thought through?
In 2020, people eventually stopped panic-buying toilet paper when they saw shelves restocked. But in 2024, there's no restocking democracy like a supermarket aisle. Now they have to live with the consequences — just as someone who panic-bought 400 rolls in 2020 might, two years later, be staring at an unused mountain of the stuff, wondering what on earth they were thinking.
Just one more parallel: both events reveal a deep-seated fear of scarcity—whether it’s a fear of running out of basic necessities or a fear of losing a particular vision of America. The irony is that in both cases, the hoarding itself creates the very chaos people were trying to avoid. In 2020, empty shelves fuelled even more panic, and in 2024, doubling down on Trumpism may accelerate the instability his supporters feared from the outset.
And if history is anything to go by, both the toilet paper and the political consequences will outlast the panic that caused them.
Predictions Based on the 'Toilet Paper Hoarding' Effect in Trump's 2024 Re-election
The comparison between the panic buying of toilet paper in early 2020 and Trump’s 2024 re-election suggests that similar patterns of fear-driven, reactionary behaviour may shape the political and social landscape. Below are predictions based on this dynamic:
1. Early Overcompensation Followed by Regret
Just as people overstocked toilet paper in 2020, many voters who backed Trump in 2024 out of fear (whether of economic collapse, social upheaval, or ‘deep state’ conspiracies) will experience buyer’s remorse. This will likely manifest within a year, as initial post-election triumph gives way to practical governance issues and unmet expectations.
2. Supply Chain Panic in Political and Bureaucratic Systems
Government institutions and civil services may experience a form of bureaucratic ‘hoarding’ — an attempt to stockpile influence, secure key positions, or pre-emptively enact policies before a feared shift in power. This could include judges being rushed through appointments, executive orders being issued at an accelerated pace, or officials entrenching policies in ways that make them harder to reverse.
3. Escalation of 'Just-in-Case' Policies
Much like individuals hoarded essentials they never actually needed, the administration may push through excessive policies based on hypothetical future crises rather than immediate necessity. These could include extreme immigration restrictions, intensified media crackdowns, or emergency measures designed to ‘protect’ national security but with unclear long-term benefits.
4. Herd Mentality Among Political Supporters
The same way people saw others buying toilet paper and felt compelled to do the same, there may be a rush of performative loyalty — businesses overzealously declaring allegiance, politicians falling in line regardless of prior criticisms, and media figures amplifying pro-Trump narratives to avoid backlash from his base.
5. Scapegoating and Misdirected Blame
In the aftermath of supply shortages, people blamed the ‘hoarders’ rather than the larger system that created the panic. Likewise, when post-election turbulence arises, blame will likely be shifted to immigrants, the media, or ‘deep state’ actors rather than the structural consequences of Trump's policies.
6. Artificial Scarcity of Rights and Freedoms
Just as panic buyers artificially created shortages, there may be a perception (or reality) of increasing restrictions on civil liberties, particularly regarding protests, media, and dissenting voices. This could lead to a self-fulfilling cycle, where fear of suppression leads to greater social unrest, which then justifies harsher crackdowns.
7. The Resale of Political Influence
Resellers took advantage of toilet paper shortages to sell rolls at extreme mark-ups. In politics, lobbyists, special interest groups, and media networks may leverage post-election chaos to extract favours, deregulations, or advantageous policies, exploiting a desperate or reactionary administration.
8. The 'Leftover Hoard' Problem
Many panic buyers ended up with more toilet paper than they could ever use, leading to waste. Similarly, some policies or appointments made in haste may prove unnecessary, unworkable, or counterproductive, requiring costly legal battles, repeals, or bureaucratic reversals.
9. Disillusionment and the 'Too Late to Fix' Realisation
Eventually, many people who hoarded toilet paper realised they had acted irrationally but were stuck with the consequences. Likewise, political and business leaders who enabled or went along with the administration out of self-preservation may later find themselves alienated or unable to course-correct once Trump’s influence begins to wane.
10. A Secondary Panic Wave in 2028
Just as people panicked again when later waves of COVID hit, another cycle of fear and political hysteria may emerge leading up to the 2028 election. If Trump cannot run again, his supporters may feel a loss of control, leading to unpredictable political shifts — perhaps an attempt to extend term limits, elevate a chosen successor, or undermine the electoral process itself.
These predictions are based on observed behavioural patterns from both consumer psychology and political history. As events unfold, we can revisit and refine these ideas to see which hold true and which require adjustment.
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